Hedge Calculator
You have a bet running and the other side is now available at a price. This works out what to put on it, and what you actually keep either way — counting both stakes, which is the part people get wrong.
What hedging is for
Hedging converts an uncertain position into a certain one. You took a price, the situation moved, and the other side is now available cheaply enough that backing it too guarantees an outcome. That is worth doing when the certainty is worth more to you than the expected value you give up — and it always costs you some expected value, because you are paying two margins instead of one.
The mistake almost everyone makes
People compute the hedge as if the hedge stake were free. It is not: it is money at risk, and it comes out of both outcomes. A $100 bet at 3.00 returns $300 if it lands. Hedging at 1.80 costs $166.67. So the locked profit is $300 − $100 − $166.67 = $33.33 — not $133.33, which is what you get if you forget to subtract the hedge stake from the winning side too.
When hedging locks in a loss
If the price on the other side is too short, hedging guarantees a loss rather than a profit, and this calculator says so in those words rather than showing a smaller positive number. That is a real and common situation: the honest move is usually to let the original bet run, unless you genuinely need the certainty more than you need the expectation.
The formula
hedge stake = return / Oₕ
profit = return − S₀ − hedge stake
where S₀ and O₀ are the original stake and odds, and Oₕ is the hedge price. Both stakes are subtracted, because both are at risk.
Worked example
You have $100 at 3.00, so the bet returns $300 if it wins. The other side is now 1.80. Stake $300 ÷ 1.80 = $166.67 on it and both outcomes return $300 against $266.67 staked — a locked $33.33, whichever way it goes.
Better to take the right price than to hedge out of a wrong one
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FAQ
What is hedging in betting?
Backing the opposite outcome of a bet you already hold, so that both results pay roughly the same. It trades expected value for certainty.
Does hedging guarantee a profit?
No. It guarantees an outcome, which may be a profit or a loss depending on the two prices. If the other side is too short, hedging locks in a loss — this calculator tells you when that is the case.
Should I hedge or let it ride?
Letting it ride has the higher expected value almost every time, because hedging pays a second margin. Hedge when the certainty matters more than the expectation — a large position, or money you need.
Is hedging the same as arbitrage?
No. An arb is two prices taken deliberately at the same time because together they guarantee a profit. A hedge is a reaction to a bet you already hold, and it often will not.