How HaterPicks works

How does the model work?

Instead of starting from a bookmaker's price, HaterPicks starts from a projection. For each player and market it covers — disposals, points, rebounds, hits and so on — the model estimates the most likely outcome from that player's recent form, role, matchup and the pace of the game, and turns that into a projected line and a hit rate. It then lines that projection up against what the bookmakers are actually offering, so you can see where the model and the market disagree. Each sport has its own model, because the way form translates into an outcome is different in AFL to the NBA, WNBA or MLB.

The projection is only ever as honest as the number behind it, which is why HaterPicks reports how often those projections actually land rather than only showing the ones that won.

What is closing line value (CLV), and why grade on it?

The closing line is the final price a market settles on just before an event starts — after all the money, news and sharp opinion has gone in. It is the single best publicly available estimate of an outcome's true probability. If you consistently take a price that is better than where the market closes, that is the strongest sign available that your bet had genuine value, independent of whether that particular bet happened to win or lose. That is why HaterPicks grades against the closing line, not just the scoreboard: a good bet that loses is still a good bet, and the closing line is how you tell them apart.

We explain this in full, with examples, in what is closing line value. If you are new to the underlying maths, start with what is expected value in betting.

How do we report accuracy?

Every pick the model makes is graded win or lose once the result is in, and the hit rate is published on the site — wins and losses. There is no hidden record and no cherry-picking of the good weeks. Across the last 30 days, HaterPicks graded 2,974 player-prop picks and the model was right on 53.1% of them.

That figure moves as new results come in and varies by sport and market. It is a record of what the model has done, not a promise of what it will do — past performance does not guarantee future results.

What does HaterPicks cover?

HaterPicks compares prices across roughly 79 Australian bookmakers so you are looking at the whole market, not one book's view of it. The player-prop projection models are live for AFL, NBA and WNBA, with more sports rolling out over time. Alongside the models, the free betting calculators let you check the maths behind any bet yourself, and the public AFL research pages show recent-form context with no account needed.

Independent, not a bookmaker

HaterPicks is an independent analytics and research product. It does not take bets, hold funds or pay out winnings, and it is not affiliated with any bookmaker. Nothing on the site is betting advice or a recommendation to place a bet — it is information to help you make your own decision.

Betting involves risk and you should only bet what you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ to bet. Gamble responsibly. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, free and confidential help is available 24/7 from Gambler's Help on 1800 858 858 or GamblingHelpOnline.org.au.