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Price receipts · updated daily

Every +EV flag, against the closing price

Since July 2026, 2,236 +EV flags have been graded against the closing price. The price we flagged beat the close 40% of the time and matched it 25%; on average it was +0.6% against the closing price.

Beat the close
40%
Matched it
25%
Worse
36%
Avg vs close
+0.6%

By sport

SportFlagsBeatMatchedWorseAvg vs close
MLB1,73635%26%39%−0.3%
WNBA25548%21%31%+4.4%
NHL17665%15%19%+3.4%
AFL6958%26%16%+4.4%

Every sport is shown, including the ones where the flags did not beat the close.

By month

MonthFlagsBeatMatchedWorseAvg vs close
July 20261233%67%0%+1.9%
August 202613850%25%25%+2.6%
September 20261,76136%25%39%−0.1%
October 202632558%21%21%+3.6%

The latest receipts

DateFlagFlagged atClosed atvs close
14 OctJonny DeLuca Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.75 Ladbrokes$1.60 Ladbrokes+9.4%
13 OctJonathan Aranda Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.50 Ladbrokes$1.50 PointsBetmatched
13 OctThomas Chabot Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.53 Sportsbet$1.53 Sportsbetmatched
13 OctJack Eichel Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.67 PointsBet$1.63 PointsBet+2.5%
13 OctKirill Kaprizov Under 1.5 points · NHL$1.47 Unibet$1.47 Unibetmatched
13 OctRasmus Dahlin Under 0.5 assists · NHL$1.96 Unibet$1.90 Unibet+3.2%
13 OctJack Eichel Over 0.5 assists · NHL$1.82 Sportsbet$1.77 Unibet+2.8%
13 OctTimo Meier Under 0.5 points · NHL$1.84 Unibet$1.79 Unibet+2.8%
13 OctChase DeLauter Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.55 Ladbrokes$1.55 Ladbrokesmatched
13 OctSteven Kwan Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.48 Ladbrokes$1.48 Ladbrokesmatched
12 OctChase DeLauter Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.55 Ladbrokes$1.55 Ladbrokesmatched
12 OctJonathan Aranda Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.50 Ladbrokes$1.50 PointsBetmatched
12 OctSteven Kwan Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.48 Ladbrokes$1.48 Ladbrokesmatched
12 OctRyan Leonard Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.65 Unibet$1.65 Unibetmatched
12 OctLuis Lara Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.95 Ladbrokes$1.95 Ladbrokesmatched
12 OctJordan Kyrou Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.58 Unibet$1.58 Unibetmatched
12 OctJordan Eberle Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.10 PointsBet$1.95 Unibet+7.7%
12 OctPavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.62 Unibet$1.63 PointsBet−0.6%
12 OctAlex Tuch Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.80 Unibet$1.79 Unibet+0.6%
11 OctAndy Pages Over 0.5 total bases · MLB$1.90 PointsBet$1.80 PointsBet+5.6%
11 OctCutter Gauthier Under 4.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.57 Unibet$1.57 Unibetmatched
11 OctDylan Guenther Under 3.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.53 Unibet$1.53 Unibetmatched
11 OctAndrei Svechnikov Under 3.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.56 Unibet$1.56 Unibetmatched
11 OctGabriel Landeskog Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.59 PointsBet$1.56 PointsBet+1.9%
11 OctDarren Raddysh Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.56 Unibet$1.55 Unibet+0.7%
11 OctRoope Hintz Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.65 Unibet$1.56 Unibet+5.8%
11 OctThomas Chabot Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.56 PointsBet$1.53 PointsBet+2.0%
11 OctTyson Foerster Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.49 Unibet$1.50 Unibet−0.7%
11 OctNoah Dobson Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.50 PointsBet$1.50 PointsBetmatched
11 OctCarter Verhaeghe Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.58 Unibet$1.53 Unibet+3.3%
11 OctSeth Jones Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.15 Unibet$1.83 Unibet+17.5%
11 OctLucas Raymond Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.60 Unibet$1.80 PointsBet−11.1%
11 OctTomas Hertl Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.53 Unibet$1.57 Unibet−2.5%
11 OctEvgeni Malkin Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.58 Unibet$1.56 PointsBet+1.3%
11 OctTrevor Moore Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.81 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+5.9%
11 OctThomas Chabot Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.65 Unibet$1.53 Unibet+7.8%
11 OctNick Suzuki Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.76 Unibet$1.67 Unibet+5.4%
11 OctAnthony Cirelli Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.77 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+3.5%
11 OctJoel Farabee Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.76 Unibet$1.72 Unibet+2.3%
11 OctBowen Byram Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.71 Unibet$1.57 Unibet+8.9%
11 OctIgor Chernyshov Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.82 Unibet$2.00 PointsBet−9.0%
11 OctZach Benson Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.93 Unibet$1.69 PointsBet+14.2%
11 OctNazem Kadri Under 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$2.12 Unibet$2.15 Unibet−1.4%
11 OctLane Hutson Under 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.98 Unibet$2.00 Unibet−1.0%
11 OctJack Roslovic Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.77 Unibet$1.63 PointsBet+8.6%
11 OctMatthew Tkachuk Under 3.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.87 Unibet$1.57 Unibet+19.1%
11 OctTyson Foerster Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.73 Unibet$1.71 Unibet+1.2%
11 OctAndrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.79 Unibet$1.65 BetRight+8.5%
11 OctMatvei Michkov Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.74 PointsBet$1.68 Unibet+3.6%
11 OctBlake Coleman Over 1.5 shots on goal · NHL$1.79 Unibet$1.62 Unibet+10.5%

How the receipts work

  • A flag is a price the app showed as +EV: better than the market's fair price for that side, at the moment it appeared.
  • The close is the best price on the same side and the same line from two or more Australian bookmakers when the game starts.
  • A flag beats the close when the price we flagged was longer than that closing price. Beating the close consistently is the strongest sign a price was genuinely wrong, because the closing price carries everything the market learned before the start.
  • Flags whose line moved, or whose side no longer had two prices at the close, are left out rather than guessed.
  • Receipts measure prices only. They are not a record of bets won or lost, and nothing here is a tip.

More on why the close matters: what closing line value is. How our projections fare against results is on the accuracy page.

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